If you’re trying to move money or goods across borders this year, speed probably isn’t the word you’d use.
What used to feel like a fairly smooth digital process now takes longer, involves more checks, and comes with more uncertainty. It’s not just about who you’re dealing with anymore. It’s about who they’re connected to further down the chain. With sanctions lists expanding and enforcement getting tighter, global trade has simply become harder to move through.
A Shift Toward “Guilty Until Proven Innocent”
The change in regulatory tone isn’t just something people are saying. You can see it in the way enforcement has picked up.
Recent disclosures suggest that the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) carried out multiple enforcement actions in 2025, adding up to hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties. The message is pretty clear. Compliance expectations don’t stop at banks anymore.
That became obvious in early 2026, when OFAC settled with IMG Academy, a sports institution in Florida, over tuition payments linked to sanctioned parties. It wasn’t a huge case in size, but it caught attention for a different reason. It showed how far these expectations now reach.
If a school is expected to trace where payments are coming from, the pressure on banks, traders and logistics firms is on a different level altogether.
Europe’s Expanding Compliance Burden
In Europe, things are not getting simpler either.
The “No Russia” clause is now standard in many contracts, but in practice it adds more checks and slows things down. Sanctions discussions are still evolving, especially around vessels linked to oil price cap circumvention, and that has made things more complicated on the ground.
For compliance teams, this isn’t just name screening anymore. It means digging into vessel ownership, insurance cover, and operational links. In many cases, institutions are deciding it’s not worth the risk.
As one market participant put it, it’s often easier to walk away from a deal than to take on the exposure that comes with it.
Asia Tightens Its Position
Across Asia, the direction is similar.
Singapore, still dealing with the fallout from recent money laundering cases, has stepped up its focus on cross-border financial flows. Industry reports point to a sharp increase in AML-related penalties, which reflects a more direct regulatory approach.
Global trade: What It Means
The Monetary Authority of Singapore has made its position clear. Cross-border activity is under closer watch.
For the market, this means tighter checks, slower processes, and more hesitation from lenders when it comes to trade finance.
AI Helps, But It Doesn’t Decide
There’s a lot of talk about AI solving these problems.
And to be fair, it helps. Systems can flag patterns, pick up anomalies, and process information at a scale that teams simply can’t.
But that’s only part of the story.
Someone still has to make the call. And when the downside of getting it wrong is so high, people tend to be cautious. False positives are still a real issue, and clearing those takes time.
As one banker put it recently, the system can show you the risk, but it doesn’t take responsibility for the decision.
That’s where the slowdown really comes from.
The Reality for 2026
At this point, the trade-off is hard to ignore.
Efficiency has given way to control. Speed has been replaced by verification. And for many firms, compliance isn’t just one step in the process anymore. It sits at the centre of it.
Larger institutions can manage this by investing in systems and teams. Smaller players don’t always have that option.
For most of the market, this is just part of staying active in global trade now.
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